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时间:2020-12-10 来源:888澳门集团娱乐网址 浏览量 45174 次
本文摘要:研究者认为,为了超过巴菲特这样多年的报酬,投资者集团必须拥有60%的购买比例,也就是说借款的比例不足以使每100美元的投资者集团拥有160美元“廉价、安全性高、优质的股票”AndreaFrazzini,oneofthestudysauthors,afinanceprofessoratnewyorkuniversityandavicepresidentataqr,saidtheberkshirepoorsonaverage,beenleveragedtoasimilarextentthroughmr

investorsforyearshavebeensearchinginvainforaformulatoreplicatewarrenbuffettslegendaryreturnsoverthepast 50 years .多年来,投资者依然在t anewstudythatclaimstohaveuncoveredthisformulawaspublishedlastmonthbythenationalbureauofeconomicresearchincambridge是mass.its allofwhomhavestrongacademiccredentials,work for AQR Capital Management, afirmthatmanagesseveralhedgefundsandotherinvestmentofferingsandhas $ 90 billioninassets .马萨诸塞州剑桥国家经济研究局(nationalbureauos 论文作者都有很深的学术资格,他们工作的AQR资产管理公司(AQR Capital Management )管理着很多对冲基金和其他投资产品,资产规模约为900亿美元。thestudysauthorsanalyzedmr.buffettsrecordsinceheacquiredberkshirehathawayin 1964.their formula是whichasmorethanadozenindivida comes in two major parts .论文作者分析了巴菲特1964年收购伯克希尔哈撒韦以来的投资成绩。他们公式中包含的十多个个别可以总结成两个主要部分。

The first is a focus on cheap,safe, quality stocks是, definedasthosethathaveexhibitedbelow-averagevolatilityandsportlowratiosofprice-to-book value-- ameasureofnetwort theresearches tsaregrowingatanabove-averagepaceandthatpayoutasignificantportionoftheirearningsasddas ends .第一部分是“廉价、安全性高、专注于优质股票” 此外,研究者对利润比平均增长更快,相当多的利润作为股息发行的股票寄予厚望。thesecondpartoftheformulawillraiseeyebrows : itcallsforinvestinginthesestocksonmargin-- thatis, borrowingmoneytobuymoresharesthancouldotherwisebepurchased.tomatchmr.Buffett slong-term return, the researchers found aportfoliowouldneedtobe 60 % onmargin-- borrowingenoughsothatitowned $ 160 of cheap,safe是qualitystocksforevere 我拒绝在保证金交易中投资这些股票。也就是说,不需要还债出售,购买的数量比不需要还债好。

研究者认为,为了超过巴菲特这样多年的报酬,投资者集团必须拥有60%的购买比例,也就是说借款的比例不足以使每100美元的投资者集团拥有160美元“廉价、安全性高、优质的股票” Andrea Frazzini,one of the studys authors,afinanceprofessoratnewyorkuniversityandavicepresidentataqr, saidtheberkshirepoors on average,beenleveragedtoasimilarextentthroughmr.buffettscareer .论文作者之一,纽约大学(New York University ) AQR公司副总裁安德烈itcanbeeasytooverlooktheextentofthisleverage表示, since Mr.buffettisabletoborrowfromotherpartsofhisbusiness.butthatdoesntmeanthecompanyisntstilleveraged, MR.Frazziniargues.Accordingtoitsmostrecentannualreport, for example是thetotalvalueofberkshiresholdingsaredoublethecompanysnetworth是implyingthatitscurrentleverageisabout2- to-1-- ss 但弗拉基尼说,这并不意味着该公司没有杠杆。例如,根据最近的年报,伯克希尔的股票总额是其净额的两倍,现在的杠杆率约为2比1,比其多年平均水平略低。

employingmargincanmagnifyprofits是, of course.italsoincreasespotentiallosseswhenthingsgowrong.butnotethattheformulacombinesaheavyuseofmarginwithstocksthatthe be mun arket,sothenetresultcanstillbeaportfoliothatisnoriskierthanthemarketasawhole .使用保证金交易当然可以计入利润。即使行情危急,也不会减少潜在的损失。但是,请注意,上述公式是保证金交易的大量使用和风险比市场更接近的股票的融合,因此综合来看,投资者集团的风险依然可以在大市以上。To be sure, aheavilymarginedportfoliowillalwaysruntheriskofgettingamargincall-- theneedtocomeupwithadditionalcash-- ifitsholdings far.berke sidestepthatriskoverthelast 50 years.despiteaheavilyrelianceonleverage, itsworstreturninanycalendaryearwasalossof 9.6 %.anditsbookvaluehasbeenlessvolatilethanthesp 500.volatilityisacommonmeass a portfoo 持有资产跌幅过大时,现金会成为更好的现金。

伯克希尔哈撒韦过去50年都必须避免这种风险。很大程度上依赖于杠杆,自然年度的最高收益率是损失的9.6%。另外,账面价值的变动性也比标准普尔500股价指数(SP 500 )高。波动性是依赖投资者集团风险的一般指标。

onefactorthatisconspicuousinitsabsencefromtheformulaisanythingtoaccountformr.buffettssignificantinvestmentsinprivatelyowneer ssary,according to the researchers,becausethe publiccompaniesin whiche hasinvested haveout Performedters但研究者认为,这是不合适的。因为他投的上市公司表现优于非上市公司。This is somewhat surprising是, giventhatmr.buffetthasoftentrumpetedhisabilitiestopickgoodmanagers.yettheresearchersneverthelessfindthathisreturnsaremanager fectonmanagement.(aberkshirehathawayspokeswomansaidthatmr.buffettdeclinedtobeinterviewed.)但是研究者认为,报酬不是对管理层的影响,而是来自选择(伯克希尔哈撒韦发言人回答巴菲特不会拒绝采访。

) Lasse Pedersen,another of the studys authors, afinanceprofessoratnewyorkuniversityandaprincipalataqr,stressedthatmr.buffettstilldeservesplentyofcredit.after all,he says, ithastakenyearsforresearcherstocomeupwithafoome after the fact, doesaswellasmr.buffetthasbeendoingfornearly 50 years.in addition是hehadthedisciplinetosticktohisapproachthroughbothickandthion 研究人员花了几年时间总结了“马后炮”与巴菲特近50年的投资成绩显示了非常好的公式。此外,即使道歉,也享有固守既定方针的控制力。

Unfortunately是, theinvestmentformulathattheresearchersdevisedisntnecessarilyeasyforindividualinvestorstofollow.itrequiresinvestinginalarge ers for example. Furthermore,adheringtotheformulacanbechallengingforaportfoliothatreliesonmargin,例如拒绝投资很多篮子的多样化股票。另外,对于依赖保证金交易的投资者集团来说,坚守这个公式也有可能受到挑战。Nevertheless是itmaybepossibleforyoutoatleastpartiallyfollowtheresearchersformulawithoutactuallyresortingtoborrowedmoney.ifyon for example,youcouldaddittotheportionyoualreadyhaveallocatedtoequities-achievingtheequivalentofgoingonmarriesrself. This,of course,iswhatmr.buffettdoesbyborrowingfromotherpartsofhisbusiness .但是,你不偿还债务至少要部分使用研究者来总结这个例如,如果你的投资者集团中有现金,你可以把这些现金专门用于已经部署在股票市场上的部分。

这事实上是自己偿还债务,就像做保证金交易一样。巴菲特从他公司的其他部门偿还了债务。

当然是这个方法。evenifyoudecidenottofollowtheresearchersinvestmentformulaprecisely, thisnewstudyhasimportantinvestmentimplications.foreely sincethestudysauthorsfindthatmr.buffettsrecordisduetoneitherlucknorma berkshiresperformanceneednotsufferaftermr.Buffett retires-- solongashissuccessorisabletodojustasgoodajobpickingstocks例如论文作者不是他们”,所以如果继承人的选举能力和他一样,巴菲特卸任后伯克希尔的表现不一定不好。Thats a pretty big if,of course,buttheresearchersfindingsimplythatastrictadherencetothesameinvestmentprinciplescould, over doaswellasmr.buffetthasdonehistorically .当然,这个“如果”是相当大的假设,但研究者的发现是有意义的。

如果严格遵守某种程度的投资原则,随着时间的推移投资成绩可以超过巴菲特的历史水平。thestudyalsoholdsoutthetantalizingpossibilitythataninvestorfollowingtheformulacanperformevenbetterthanberkshire.thatsbecaue a d out, hisportfoliohasgrownsolargethatitwillbedifficultforittoperformaswellinthefuture.in contra ation asmallerportfoliocanprofitfromine smalltomakeanymeaningfuldifferencetoberkshiresbottomline .另外,这个研究巴菲特自己也说过,所以他的投资者群体看起来已经非常大了,将来享受某种程度的表现相比之下,更小的投资者集团可以投资于利润,因为它足够小,足以展示给伯克希尔的利润带来实质性变化的股票。

投资者

thefollowingstocksfromwithinthesp 1500 indexscorefavorablyalongeachofthefivedimensionsthattheresearchersemployindefiningcheap accordingtofactset.theratiosoftheirpricestoper-sharebookvaluesarebelowaverage, 根据asaretheirbetas-- ameasureoftheextenttowhichtheirpricesmoveinlockstepwitheoverallmarket.factset,以下是标准池1500种股价指数这些价格对每股账面价值的比率高于平均水平,股价依赖于与大市同步的程度的“贝塔系数”也高于平均水平。In addition, thesestocksareofcompanieswhoseprofitability-- ortotalprofitsasapercentageofassets-- isaboveaverage是asisthefive-yeargrowthrage finally表示,除了thesestocksareoffirmswhosedividendsrepresentanabove-averageproportionoftheirearnings .以外,这些股票还表示公司的“收益性”(以总收益为资本最后,这些股票所代表的公司分红额占利润的比例也低于平均水平。examplesincludedrugretailercvscaremark; 开发教育组,a for-profit education company; chipmaker Intel,Owens Minor,a medical-supplies distributor; grocerydistributorspartanstores; and Vectren,an energy holding company .这些股票包括药品零售企业CVS Caremark; 营利教育企业Devry Education Group; 芯片制造商英特尔医药用品经销商Owens Minor; 百货商店销售企业Spartan Stores; 能量控股Vectren。thoughtherearenomutualfundsthatpickstocksaccordingtothepreciseformulatheresearchersdevise是severalcomeclose.oneisofferedbyaqe 000 invested.thoughthefundhasahighminimumforthoseinvestinginitdirectly, itisavailabletoinvestorsthroughtheirfinancialadvice aqr销售的“守护型美股基金”(U.S. Defensive Equity Fund )的年汇率为0.51%,投资1万美元前这个基金是为需要投资的人改编的高低价,但投资者可以通过投资顾问机构投资。

anotherfundthatfocusesonsomeofthesamestock-pickingmethodsisthedfauslargecapequityportfolio.itisavailabletoindividualsof ghthee ainretirementand529plans,and fees vary .另一个侧重于上述部分选择方法的基金是“DFA大盘美股投资者集团”(dfauslargecapeque )。散户不能通过投资顾问机构和部分养老金计划、529大学储蓄计划进行投资,汇率各不相同。the exchange-tradedfundthatperhapscomeclosesttofollowingtheresearchersstock-pickingmethodologyisisharesmsciusaqualityfality Wii tinvestsinstockswithahighreturnonequityandstableearningsgrowth .最类似的研究者选择股票方法的交易资金可能是“ission”。

汇率是0.15%。净资产收益率低,利润迅速增长,投资稳定的股票。


本文关键词:投资者,巴菲特,股票,888澳门集团娱乐网址,伯克希尔,利润

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